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Issue Category: Issue 1, 2025

  • Interview: Conversation with the President of the International Gas Union

    Interview: Conversation with the President of the International Gas Union

    Paul Cheliak, Vice President of Strategy and Delivery at the Canadian Gas Association, speaks with Andrea Stegher, Senior Advisor at SNAM and President of the IGU. They reflect on Andrea’s career in the gas industry, major shifts in global energy systems, Italy’s resilience strategy through infrastructure and diversification, and Canada’s role in ensuring a secure energy future. 

    The interview has been edited slightly for clarity. 

    You’ve been involved in the gas energy industry for several years — what led you to pursue a career in this sector, and what significant changes have you observed throughout your time?

    Andrea Stegher: Thanks for the question, Paul — it made me realize this year [2025] will be 30 years since I graduated from university. At that time, I had no idea that the energy industry even existed! By chance, I joined a Master’s program in managerial economics run by ENI in Italy, and that truly changed the course of my life. 

    I began in upstream at ENI, working on energy scenario analysis, then shifted into market liberalization in the late ’90s — helping turn underground gas storage into a profitable business unit. Over the years, I’ve worked in regulation, commercial strategy, and business development. 

    Andrea Stegher, Senior Advisor at SNAM and Vice President of the International Gas Union

    Later, I joined Snam, Europe’s leading gas infrastructure company, where I initially took on infrastructure development responsibilities — including hydraulic simulations and capacity planning, which was quite a leap from my economist training. Among many other things, around 2015, I even worked to establish a pilot plant for what we now call e-methane — then referred to as Power-to-Gas (P2G). 

    It’s been a career filled with challenges and diverse experiences. But if there’s one constant over the last 30 years, it’s change. That’s very much part of this industry’s DNA or, at least, it’s consistent with my experience. We’re always striving to improve, and naturally, that means pushing the boundaries now and then to figure out how we can do things better. And that’s what has kept the work so engaging, I’m genuinely excited to continue. 

    Paul Cheliak  
    Talking about constant change, given the significant geopolitical shifts we’re seeing around the world — from the Americas to Europe and the Middle East — how do you see natural gas and LNG fitting into the evolving conversation on global energy security? 

    Andrea Stegher: That’s a very timely and important question. We’re not only seeing growing geopolitical tensions, particularly in Europe and East Mediterranean, but also a broader structural shift in how we think about energy. In the past, we looked at gas in isolation — today, we see it as part of a much more integrated, global energy system. 

    Gas markets have evolved from regional to global, with LNG becoming a key connector between continents. That global integration brings opportunity, but also complexity and, in some cases, fragility. The 2022 energy crisis showed just how critical optionality and supply diversification are. Had that crisis occurred five years earlier, before the LNG infrastructure was in place, Europe’s situation would have been much worse. 

    “Gas markets have evolved from regional to global, with LNG becoming a key connector between continents.”

    So, while geopolitics is front and centre, the fundamentals still matter: long-term investment, security of supply, affordability, and climate responsibility. These pillars must be balanced. Natural gas — and LNG in particular — continues to play a vital role in delivering energy security, enabling flexibility, and supporting transitions through technologies like biomethane and hydrogen. 

    Ultimately, we need to stay focused on maintaining a resilient energy system. Gas remains essential — meeting around 30% of global energy demand growth last year — and we shouldn’t be shy about the value this industry brings to consumers around the world. 

    Paul Cheliak: What role does gas energy play in Italy today and into the future? Both domestically and internationally.

    Andrea Stegher: Many are not aware of this fact, but Italy had large domestic production, which was very substantial in the middle of the last century, and Italy was key to creating the first gas link of Western Europe to the Soviet Union, enabling the Soviet Union to send gas to Europe.  

    In short, Italy has been a gas country for many decades, and it’s still very much relying on gas, which is meeting about 40% of our energy needs. We have a significant number of combined-cycle gas plants, a strong industrial base, and more than 20 million households relying on natural gas in a relatively small country. If you look at the map, Italy is compact compared to Canada, which has a slightly smaller population but a vast amount of land. Yet in Italy, we operate 300,000 kilometres of gas pipelines. To put that into perspective, our national highway network is only about 8,000 kilometres.  

    “In Italy, we operate 300,000 kilometres of gas pipelines. To put that into perspective, our national highway network is only about 8,000 kilometres.”

    Italy has long been heavily reliant on Russian gas, but we have also maintained strong connections with Algeria, as our guiding principle on energy has been diversification. We had a clear need to protect the consumers by investing in infrastructure development, which has made our energy system resilient to many conditions. For example, a few years back in Milan, where I live, temperatures would go down to -15 °C — that kind of cold would have posed serious challenges without gas, and it compelled us to act quickly and invest in infrastructure.  

    Flexibility has also played an important role in building resilience, supported by a very strong network of underground gas storage capacity that plays a critical role in ensuring a continuous supply during our seasonal demand swing — our peak winter consumption is four to five times higher than in summer. This kind of demand would be difficult to manage through electrification alone, which comes with a lot of complexity and costs.  

    Italy has different pipeline entry points, Algeria, Libya — though Libya faces political challenges — and a recent addition from Azerbaijan. And I am proud of my contributions to creating the Southern Gas corridor in my capacity in the past.  

    Since 2022, we’ve expanded our regasification capacity — a critical step in strengthening our energy infrastructure. But regasification terminals alone aren’t enough; they need a steady supply. That’s why it’s so important for more producers to enter the market. Diversification has proven essential. Before 2022, Italy relied on Russia for up to 40% of its gas and, considering that Italy imports 97% of the gas it consumes, reducing dependency on a single supplier is vital for energy security. 

    Italy is uniquely positioned geographically. Let me be Italian for a second and put it another way, we are right at the center of the Mediterranean. This allows us an opportunity to become an energy hub, not just for imports but also for exports. We’ve already developed reverse flow capacity that allows us to move gas from the country into northern Europe, something we couldn’t have imagined 15 years ago. In fact, we even exported gas to Austria recently. 

    Looking ahead, this infrastructure could also support new molecules, like hydrogen, especially if developments in North Africa scale up. So again, our goal remains twofold: to continue serving today’s energy needs with no interruptions and to prepare for a sustainable, diversified energy future.  

    Paul Cheliak: As you prepare to take on the role of President of the International Gas Union, what opportunities or developments are you most looking forward to? 

    Andrea Stegher: First and foremost, the excitement is to serve an industry that I’ve known for many, many years. Our industry has a lot of credibility, and we can draw on impressive facts and figures to substantiate it. I think that’s where the IGU can do a lot more to support its members and represent all stakeholders, be it policy makers, financial institutions, and the next generation of young energy professionals. We tend to forget how important it is to give back and share what we have learned.   

    I think also a part of the excitement is to serve a global organization like IGU which, according to me, is like a 100-year-old startup. IGU was founded in 1931, so it boasts a very rich history, but it’s still an organization that is constantly evolving. As such, we have recently published the IGU Manifesto, which sets a clear direction for our work and reinforces our role as a credible and meaningful voice on gas and energy at large. 

    One more thing I’d like to amplify is the wealth of competencies and expertise within the industry and within the IGU committees. I believe we can do more to amplify this and position the IGU as a great gateway to share knowledge and insights across the global energy community. 

    Paul Cheliak: Let’s talk about technology — it’s an ever-changing landscape. What should the utilities do to stay responsive to the changing technological needs and consumer demands? 

    Andrea Stegher: This is a very important element. I think maybe it’s not very well known, so to speak, the fact that in Italy we have 99% of consumers using smart gas meters. We’re also now looking at AI, digital mapping of our infrastructure, and there’s, of course, cybersecurity. So, it’s safe to say there are many ways technology is deeply embedded into our industry.  

    Technology also extends to the development of new molecules and systems, such as carbon capture and storage. It is now essential to change the landscape and create new value chains. Therefore, creating pricing mechanisms of CO2, whether it’s explicit or shadow pricing, to make business cases that are meaningful for developing these new avenues. 

    Understanding what the customer needs is just as important as the infrastructure we build. While we are very proud of the value chain we represent, we sometimes overlook the consumers. It is always important to acknowledge that we are here to serve their needs, and that’s where technology plays a critical role in helping to meet those needs.

    Paul Cheliak: As you know, Canada is hosting the G7 this year, at a critical moment, not only in Canada-US relations but also in Canada-Europe relations and Canada-global relations. How should Canada position itself on energy and natural gas? And what lessons can we draw from Italy’s experience hosting the G7 under its presidency? 

    Andrea Stegher: The developments of recent years have clearly underscored the important role gas plays at the G7 level. In an increasingly volatile and uncertain global landscape, energy security has become a central concern. For example, in countries like Italy, which lacks sufficient domestic resources, this has meant investing in infrastructure and pursuing greater diversification of supply. But this is not just Italy’s challenge — it’s also a call for countries with domestic resources to support broader development efforts and foster international energy connections. 

    When discussing forums like the G7 and G20, another critical priority is fostering inclusion rather than fragmentation. The G7 has a unique opportunity — and responsibility — to engage more meaningfully with the other G20 members. We must avoid limiting key discussions to a narrow set of voices. Instead, we should broaden the dialogue and build stronger connections across regions and economies. 

    Diverse perspectives are essential to every G7 conversation — and that’s where we believe IGU can play a constructive role. At the International Gas Union, we’re committed to contribute to this effort by offering a clearer, more global understanding of the gas energy landscape. Our focus is on how gas can support both immediate energy security needs and the long-term innovation required for the future.  

    “The developments of recent years have clearly underscored the important role gas plays at the G7 level.”

    Paul Cheliak: Let’s finish with a question for you, Andrea, about Canada. What advice do you have for us as we consider our future in energy as a country? 

    Andrea Stegher: Well, for sure, you have important challenges in terms of population density. There are many opportunities to access resources, and I believe you have extensive infrastructure to meet consumer needs.  

    Furthermore, I believe Canada has an opportunity to position itself more strongly on the international stage. While maintaining a close relationship with the United States is, of course, essential — especially given the two-way nature of gas trade — there is also room to broaden Canada’s global engagement. With its significant energy resources, Canada can play a stabilizing role in global markets. As I mentioned earlier, volatility remains a key issue, and global energy demand continues to grow. That’s why it’s so important to invest in sustainable infrastructure and develop resources that can meet future needs effectively. 

    Years ago, I encouraged my Italian colleagues to rethink the global map with Asia at the center, rather than Europe — a shift in perspective that helps us better understand how different regions can contribute to development, human progress, and social advancement. I believe Canada, with its capacity and values, has a strong role to play in that broader vision. 

    Paul Cheliak: Thank you very much for your time, Andrea.

  • Vanguard Renewables

    Vanguard Renewables

    Where is your company located? 

    We are based in Weston, Massachusetts, with operational anaerobic co-digestion facilities in Massachusetts and Vermont, and facilities currently under construction in Wisconsin and Virginia.

    How many employees do you have? 

    We currently have approximately 200 employees and are continuing to grow!

    What is the company’s priority over the next five years?

    We’re expanding our anaerobic digesters to major US markets, aiming for 50 operational facilities within five years. Partnering with food and beverage manufacturers, we recycle organic waste and cow manure in our on-farm digesters, producing biogas, CO2, and valuable agricultural byproducts. This circular process reduces greenhouse gas emissions, supports regenerative agriculture, and generates renewable natural gas for decarbonizing various industries. Over the next five years, we’ll continue to grow our footprint, offering zero waste solutions to the food and beverage industry while generating renewable energy.

    What opportunities and challenges does your company face? 

    We are the largest Renewable Natural Gas (RNG) producer in the organics space with 12.5 BCF in development across the country, with the opportunity to bring carbon negative renewable energy to a broader audience while helping the food and beverage industry decarbonize and helping to sustain small family farms via an annual lease payment, low-carbon fertilizer, and animal bedding. RNG can be used in multiple segments, creating opportunities for reducing emissions within the gas-to-product, voluntary, utility, and transportation markets, particularly in industries like maritime and international shipping. Regulations and new markets can be a challenge for RNG, and some do not yet have pathways for our unique co-digested RNG, compared to manure or landfill RNG supply sources.

    In your opinion, what will be the role of natural gas in the next 50 years? 

    Natural gas will act as an important transition fuel for grid stability and industrial processes as renewables scale, with RNG emerging as the decarbonization pathway, especially in hard-to-electrify sectors such as shipping or heavy transport. US RNG production, projected to grow tenfold by 2050, will increasingly replace fossil gas with a unique ability, unlike power, to leverage existing natural gas infrastructure, such as Liquefied Natural Gas terminals and pipelines. By 2050, there will be a critical dependence on renewables like RNG as conventional gas declines under climate mandates.

  • Gas heat pumps: Advancing energy efficiency in heating and cooling

    Gas heat pumps: Advancing energy efficiency in heating and cooling

    Gas heat pumps (GHPs), also referred to as thermally driven heat pumps, are emerging as a promising technology to enhance heating and cooling efficiency while reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. By leveraging natural gas combustion to drive the heat pump process, these systems offer a resilient and energy-efficient solution, particularly in colder climates where traditional electric heat pumps face performance limitations.  

    GHPs provide a practical pathway for homeowners, businesses, and industries to enhance the environmental performance while maintaining reliable and efficient heating solutions. This article explores the advantages, technological advancements, market potential, and policy implications of gas heat pumps in Canada.  

    Natural gas heat pump. Source: Enbridge Gas

    How do gas heat pumps (GHPs) work?

    Gas heat pumps operate by using natural gas combustion to power a heat pump cycle. Heat can be sourced from the air, water, or ground, as with electric heat pumps. However, traditional electric heat pumps lose efficiency in extremely cold temperatures because their ability to extract heat from the air diminishes as outdoor temperatures drop. As a result, they require supplemental heating, often from electric resistance elements, which reduces overall efficiency.  

    Gas heat pumps, on the other hand, benefit from an additional heat recovery process. They capture and utilize the waste heat from combustion, significantly improving overall efficiency and maintaining performance above 100% efficient even in frigid conditions. This makes them an attractive option for regions with harsh winters, as they can continue to provide consistent and cost-effective heating where electric heat pumps struggle. 

    Why consider gas heat pumps (GHPs)?

    Gas heat pumps present a range of benefits for residential, commercial, and industrial applications, including:

    • GHG emission reduction: By maximizing the use of natural gas, including renewable natural gas (RNG) and potentially hydrogen, GHPs have lower emissions compared to conventional heating methods. 
    • Superior cold climate performance: Unlike electric heat pumps, which struggle in extreme cold, GHPs maintain high efficiency even at low temperatures, making them a reliable heating option in Canada’s climate. 
    • Utilization of existing infrastructure: These systems integrate seamlessly with current natural gas networks, reducing installation complexity and costs. 
    • Compliance with future energy standards: Federal and provincial policies are increasingly favouring technologies with greater than 100% energy performance, positioning GHPs as a viable solution. 

    Despite their potential, gas heat pumps face some barriers to widespread adoption: 

    • Limited awareness: Many homeowners, businesses, and HVAC professionals remain unfamiliar with GHP technology. Education and outreach efforts are needed to increase adoption. 
    • Availability constraints: While commercial units are available, residential models are still in early-stage production. Expanding manufacturing capacity will be critical for adoption. 
    • Limited: Currently, the initial costs remain high due to small-scale manufacturing. However, costs are expected to decline as manufacturing scales up.  
    • Regulatory uncertainty: While policies favoring high-efficiency heating solutions exist, explicit support for gas heat pumps is still in development. Incentive programs need to be expanded to include GHPs. 

    To overcome these challenges, industry stakeholders—including manufacturers, utilities, and government agencies—are developing a roadmap to mainstream gas heat pumps by 2035. Key phases include pilot programs (2022-2025), expanded HVAC training and distribution networks (2025-2028), and large-scale adoption with improved product affordability (2028-2030).

    Conclusion

    Gas heat pumps offer a compelling solution for Canada’s heating and cooling needs, particularly in colder climates where electric alternatives may fall short. By leveraging natural gas combustion, they provide efficiency, resilience and affordability, positioning GHPs as a key player for a lower-emission energy future. 

    “Gas heat pumps offer a compelling solution for Canada’s heating and cooling needs, particularly in colder climates where electric alternatives may fall short.”

    The coming years will be crucial in determining GHPs’ place in Canada’s evolving energy landscape. Expanding pilot programs, improving affordability through economies of scale, and integrating GHPs into incentive programs will be essential for widespread adoption. 

  • An energy champion

    An energy champion

    Jacob Irving is a natural fit as president of the Industrial Gas Users Association 

    “Jacob Irving, President of the Industrial Gas Users Association (IGUA)”

    Late last year, when the Industrial Gas Users Association (IGUA) was searching for a new president following the retirement of Shahrzad Rahbar, they hired the ideal candidate: Jacob Irving.  

    Well-experienced and passionately devoted to the Canadian energy scene, Irving had successfully led some of Canada’s most prominent energy industry associations, including the Oil Sands Developers Group, the Canadian Hydropower Association, and the Energy Council of Canada.  

    Originally from the Huron and Franco-Ontarian community of Penetanguishene, following graduation from the University of Ottawa, his first job was as an Information Officer with the Library of Parliament in Ottawa, where he specialized in parliamentary procedure. That led him to South Africa—apartheid had fallen, and new provincial legislatures were being created. “I started on contract with the Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA) to help rewrite the Standing Orders for the Western Cape Provincial Parliament,” he recalls, and was later hired to help create their first Member of Parliament Induction Program. They were valuable years, he says. They set his mind for decades, influencing his choice of career. “Working and traveling throughout southern Africa, I was struck by the many communities that went dark after the sun went down,” he recalls. “Although I was working in the field of parliamentary procedure at the time, I was constantly struck by the importance of energy.” 

    So, rather than return to Ottawa, he chose Calgary to pursue energy development (and to live with his wife-to-be, who worked for TC Energy). “It was the year 2000, and Canada was hosting the World Petroleum Congress for the first time,” he says. His involvement with the Congress was “an incredible opportunity to work with the many great and different energy companies headquartered in Calgary,” he says. “I was hired by BP Canada Energy Company following that experience to assist them with government and public affairs; this marked the beginning of my energy career.”   

    His exposure to energy poverty in other countries triggered an interest in learning how Canada largely avoided the same scourge. One of the first, basic lessons he noted was that if a country could make more energy than it needed, it was far more likely to enjoy the advantages of energy security. During his time in Calgary, that became self-evident. “We have the oil sands, no other country does. I used to ask my family and friends, if the oil sands deposit has to be located in any country on earth, where else other than Canada would you like to see it placed? I still ask that question.”  

    “One of the first, basic lessons he noted was that if a country could make more energy than it needed, it was far more likely to enjoy the advantages of energy security.” 

    And constant questioning to ensure understanding any situation helps grow a career. “From my role as Executive Director for the Oil Sands Developers Group in Fort McMurray, I was approached to become President of the Canadian Hydropower Association,” he says. “The opportunity to return to Ottawa and learn about Canada’s other great foundational energy pillar was unique and exciting—I’m always thinking about the energy advantages Canada enjoys that others simply do not. There are many. The oil sands and our hydropower strengths are unique. We are also particularly strong in natural gas and nuclear. We have escaped the trap of energy poverty quite simply because we do it all and we do it well.”    

    At this point, Irving was well on his way in a brilliant career. Next came the Energy Council of Canada, where “I was fortunate to promote all forms of Canadian energy expertise domestically and internationally,” he says. “Working with Global Affairs, we delivered the positive energy messages that we consolidated through Canada’s major national energy industry associations to interested audiences abroad: the United States, Poland, the UAE, Vietnam and South Africa.” They connected numerous Canadian companies with those missions abroad and the business opportunities they created.  

    And, importantly, it also involved engagement with First Nations. “As we have since 2000, we recognize the Canadian Energy Person of the Year,” says Irving. “During my time with the organization, I was fortunate to be part of the selection of Chief Jim Boucher and, most recently, Chief Crystal Smith for the award. Along with Volumes One and Two of our publication, Indigenous Energy Across Canada, we were able to elevate and celebrate the growing leadership of First Peoples in Canadian energy development both at home and abroad. Indigenous energy leaders joined the Energy Council of Canada’s board of directors for the first time during my tenure. It was a privilege to learn, understand and promote their perspectives.”    

    With the retirement of Dr. Rahbar, IGUA was seeking a new leader—and Irving was approached. He immediately gravitated toward it. “I was fortunate to learn about the oil sands while serving as the Executive Director for the Oil Sands Developers Group and then to learn about hydropower while serving as the President of the Canadian Hydropower Association,” he says. So what next?  

    “I’ve enjoyed a diverse and rewarding career in the upstream energy sector but always felt I was missing an important dimension,” is his answer. “I understand the energy producers’ perspective, but what about the customer? In this (IGUA) role, I am fortunate to approach energy from the point of view of those who consume it and thereby underwrite its actual development. I bring a great deal of experience to the position but also value how it will make me a more well-rounded energy professional. I am truly fortunate to learn, understand and serve the needs of my members.”     

    With all these considerations occupying IGUA, Irving still makes time for more mind-relaxing activities. “I like to downhill ski in the wintertime and water ski in the summer time,” he says. And there’s the all-important family. “We have two university-aged daughters and two high school-aged sons,” he says. “I like to focus on helping them realize opportunities that are the same or greater than the ones I was once afforded. I feel there was a time where this was not a remarkable thing to aspire to and that it didn’t even bear mentioning. But today, I think it requires much more of a parent’s time, effort, resources, and attention. It’s a good thing I really like my kids, almost as much as I like my wife.”     

  • Boom Times for U.S. Gas?

    Boom Times for U.S. Gas?

    Just a few years have passed since analysts were predicting demand for U.S. natural gas would soon peak and begin a long slide as climate goals spurred America’s energy transition. But surging domestic demand for electric power – in large part due to the AI-driven rush to build new data centers – and a significant ramp-up of LNG export capacity could turn 2025 into another record year for natural gas, barring disruptions from disastrous trade policies.

    It wasn’t so long ago that the prospects for the U.S. natural gas industry seemed so dim that it became fashionable for local distribution companies to distance themselves from their fossil fuel roots and start rebranding themselves as “energy infrastructure companies.” 

    Even if then-proliferating bans on new hookups and forced electrification policies prevented companies from pushing the geologic fuel to their customers, they knew their transmission and distribution systems would be key to delivering new-era energy molecules, including renewable natural gas and hydrogen. 

    Hold the phone: Lo and behold, natural gas seems to be America’s darling again, if not with climate advocates, then certainly with the businesses and industries that are counting on the nation’s abundant supplies of the fuel to fill new energy needs and continue to power the U.S. economy. 

    Coming off a record year for U.S. natural gas consumption in 2024, the upward trajectory has continued into 2025, with the U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) forecasting in mid-March that consumption will hit a new record of 92.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d) this year. 

     

    “Coming off a record year for U.S. natural gas consumption in 2024, the upward trajectory has continued into 2025…”

    Of course, that estimate likely didn’t foresee the impact of ongoing trade shenanigans on the part of President Donald Trump, which as of mid-April had financial markets reeling, staunch allies like Canada wondering what happened to their reliable old friend and recession risks soaring. 

    Long term, however, two powerful trends buoy the rising fortunes of the U.S. natural gas industry: America’s appetite for electric power is suddenly growing again for the first time in decades, and global demand for U.S. LNG continues to surge just as new infrastructure needed to serve the export market is coming online.  

    Those trends, combined with one of the coldest winters in several years, had pushed benchmark prices of natural gas over the $4/MMBtu mark by late March, up from under $2 last year, propelling analysts to predict expanded investment in gas production and infrastructure to serve domestic and export markets. 

    Structural growth happening here

    The U.S. power sector in January set a new monthly record for gas demand for a winter month, and the same month, industrial demand hit the highest level on record going back to 2005, according to Richard Meyer, Vice President, Energy Markets, Analysis and Standards at the American Gas Association.   

    “The industrial number is very interesting because that’s driven by not just heating demand, but there are economic and structural factors,” Meyer said. “The fact that it’s at an all-time high in what was a very cold January but not the coldest we have on record is very suggestive of some structural growth happening here.” 

    Meyer has no doubt that some of that structural growth is thanks to investments in U.S. manufacturing spurred by incentives in the Biden-era CHIPS and Science Act and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which have goosed demand for natural gas both for power generation and for direct use in production. 

    In addition, the increase in nearshoring – shortening global supply chains by moving manufacturing and assembly operations to Mexico from far-flung locations to reduce exposure to geopolitical risks and vulnerabilities laid bare during the pandemic – is also boosting Mexico’s demand for U.S. natural gas. 

    U.S. natural gas exports to Mexico are expected to grow nearly 40% from 6.5 bcf/day to 9 bcf/day by decade’s end, with nearshoring accounting for about one-third of the growth, according to Patrick Rau, Senior Vice President, Research and Analysis for industry publication Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI). 

    Riding AI and the data center boom 

    The game-changer for U.S. natural gas in the near future, however, is America’s voracious appetite for electric power, with consumption expected to rise 50% by 2050 after remaining essentially flat for much of the past 25 years. Experts say U.S. generating capacity will have to double by 2035 to meet the need.

    “The game-changer for U.S. natural gas in the near future, however, is America’s voracious appetite for electric power, with consumption expected to rise 50% by 2050 after remaining essentially flat for much of the past 25 years. Experts say U.S. generating capacity will have to double by 2035 to meet the need.”

    In addition to the aforementioned structural changes in demand, some of that growth will result from electrification policies – a key strategy advocated by climate advocates to replace the direct use of natural gas in various applications with electricity generated from lower-emitting energy sources such as renewables.  

    But the major driver of growth in the short term – artificial intelligence or AI – wasn’t even on the radar just a few years ago. Today, demand for power from America’s tech giants is exploding as they build out new data centers to handle the huge computing requirements of AI-driven programs. 

    Some experts project a 15% annual growth rate in electricity consumption by data centers through 2030 and estimate that data centers could account for fully 5% of total global consumption of electricity by the end of this decade. 

    A Bank of America Securities report in early March projected capital expenditures for “hyperscalers” – the massive data centers being built by tech giants like Microsoft, Google parent Alphabet, Nvidia, Meta, Amazon and Tesla to train AI models – will increase 34% year-over-year to $257 billion in 2025.  

    There’s little agreement on how much data center electricity requirements could add to gas demand, with estimates from 1 bcf/day by the end of 2030 to 18 bcf/day. NGI’s Rau believes the median is around 4.5 bcf/day, adding that it could be “a bit bullish depending on how a number of different factors play out.” 

    Unknowns include how quickly AI developers can follow the lead of DeepSeek in finding less energy-intensive ways to train the models used by generative AI tools like ChatGPT and how much supply chain issues, such as turbine shortages, will limit the natural gas industry’s ability to pounce on opportunities.  

    Case in point: NRG Energy, GE Vernova and Kiewit announced plans in late February to build more than 5 gigawatts of natural gas combined-cycle plants to supply data centers, with the new capacity phasing in from 2029 through 2032. “That right there tells you there is a long lead time,” Rau said. 

    Still, natural gas is in an enviable position to cash in on the data center boom. All of the big tech players have net-zero climate goals and would prefer to not use natural gas to run their data centers, but neither intermittent renewables nor nuclear, which faces even longer wait times, can meet all their needs. 

    “With AI, the idea is that these new data centers are going to need to run 24/7, so they’re going to need to be able to run baseload, they’re going to need to be able to run all the time at full capacity,” Rau said. “Natural gas really seems to check all of the proverbial boxes of what folks would want and need.” 

    The ability to meet those kinds of specific power requirements – not only for data centers but other mission-critical applications – is one reason natural gas used in power generation was up 3.3% in 2024 and still accounts for 43% of the overall power generation energy mix in the U.S., according to the EIA. 

    While the ultimate future impact remains murky, one thing is clear: The adoption of AI-driven technologies is growing at an exponential rate. ChatGPT has gone from zero when it was introduced in November 2022 to 400 million weekly active users as of February, according to OpenAI. 

    And it’s still early days. Emerging “agentic AI” models promise to deliver true automation to all manner of business and industrial processes from renegotiating contracts to smart robotics able to think and make decisions autonomously. Even assuming more energy-efficient models, AI will require a lot of juice. 

    “The adoption of AI-driven technologies is growing at an exponential rate.” 

    Opening the LNG spigot

    Adding to the prospects for another record year for natural gas has been the rapid buildout of U.S. LNG export infrastructure and – with the shifting policy landscape in Washington, D.C. – an unabashedly favourable view of natural gas and gas infrastructure and fewer regulatory hurdles to delay projects. 

    New LNG export facilities scheduled to come online this year are expected to increase demand for feed gas by about 3 bcf/d, which would be close to a 25% increase over 2024 volumes, according to NGI’s Rau. Feed gas demand as of mid-March was averaging more than 15 bcf/d, with flows on March 21 approaching 17 bcf/d. 

    Those projects include Venture Global’s Plaquemines LNG 2 facility, slated to start shipping LNG in September, nine months after shipping its first cargo from Plaquemines 1. Venture Global in March announced plans to expand Plaquemines’ capacity from 27 million tons per annum (mtpa) to 45 mpta. 

    Cheniere Energy also was expected to start up the first phase of its Corpus Christi Stage 3 expansion facility in Texas this year, and Exxon reported in a regulatory filing earlier this year that its Golden Pass LNG project, a joint venture with Qatar Energy, remains on track to ship gas before the end of 2025.  

    With flexible destination clauses that allow them to send cargoes to where they will fetch the highest price, U.S. exporters are well positioned to capitalize on global LNG demand, said Rau, noting that demand remains strong as Europe continues to shun Russian gas and restock depleted inventories following a cold winter. 

    Red flags on trade cloud outlook

    Robust domestic and export demand and low levels of natural gas in storage are combining to lift prices, and higher prices are sending the signal to natural gas producers that it’s time to increase production to bring supply and demand into line. 

    The EIA revised its 2025 price outlook in mid-March to an average $4.20 MMBtu for the year – up 11% from February – and estimated 2026 Henry Hub spot prices at an average “near $4.50 MMBtu,” according to the agency’s Short-Term Energy Outlook report issued March 11. That’s in line with Natural Gas Intelligence’s $4.45 MMbtu 2026 Henry Hub forward curve published the same day. 

    As early as February, those prices had already turned a flat to negative outlook on U.S. gas production in 2025 into expectations for a significant increase. NGI’s Rau began hearing in February about producers’ plans to add rigs and fracking crews and is projecting gas growth of more than 3% this year and closer to 5% in 2026. 

    “There’s a tremendous amount of gas that’s unlocked once you reach above (USD) $3.50 all the way up to $5.00,” said the AGA’s Meyer, referring to the range of Henry Hub futures prices. “It doesn’t surprise me that operators are responding. Now we’ll see how quickly it comes to market and at what volumes.” 

    Despite all indicators pointing toward another record year for natural gas, disruptions resulting from trade conflicts between the U.S. and its partners could derail forecasts, although at this writing in late March, it remained unclear whether angry exchanges of tariff threats would turn into a real trade war.  

    Rau downplayed the short-term impact on the U.S. natural gas market from trade friction with America’s largest trade partners. Canada supplies only 7% of U.S. gas needs, and Mexico gets 70% of its gas from the U.S., making it unlikely gas would be a pawn in a trade spat with America’s neighbor to the south.  

    His greater concern is a protracted trade war that triggers a global recession and shrinks demand for natural gas at home and abroad. As of mid-April, economists were putting the odds of a U.S. recession this year at 47% – about double February estimates – largely due to the erosion of business and consumer confidence resulting from President Trump’s erratic trade policies. 

    America’s natural gas industry – like its Canadian counterpart, no doubt – can only hope more moderate voices prevail and the world can avoid a global economy weighted down by tariffs and counter-tariffs. There will be no winners in that scenario. 

  • Natural gas delivers through a cold winter

    Natural gas delivers through a cold winter

    Spring has begun and while there may still be the occasional spring snowstorm in parts of the country, most of the cold weather is likely behind us. As furnaces start to wind down, this issue of Facts and Developments looks back on this past winter and the outsized role that natural gas has played in heating homes and businesses across the country. 

    The 2024-25 winter was one of the colder ones in recent memory. The year started with a big winter storm, hitting most of Canada and the United States, resulting in an all-time high natural gas demand in the US Lower-48. On average, temperatures across the country had remained at colder-than-normal levels for the rest of the winter, especially compared to the prior two winter seasons.  

    One way to measure the “coldness” of a season is through Heating Degree Days (HDD). HDD is defined as the difference between the daily outdoor air temperature below a baseline temperature of 15°C, the point at which energy input is needed to maintain indoor air temperatures. The higher the HDD, the more energy is required for heating a building. The graph below presents the average Heating Degree Days in Canada over the last three heating seasons from October to March. Through October to March, the heating needs in Canada were 2% higher than those of the 2022-2023 season and nearly 10% higher than the 2023-2024 season. 

    The colder than typical winter meant that energy demand in buildings was higher this year compared to the prior two. And there’s no energy source that is relied upon more in Canadian households than natural gas. Natural gas makes up 46% of all energy used in the building sector. There are nearly 7.7 million natural gas customers across the country – nearly 50% of nearly 15.5 million households – using natural gas as the primary energy source for home heating. This percentage is even higher in the provinces of Ontario (71%), Saskatchewan (80%), and Alberta (84%). 

    Between December 2024 and February 2025, a total of 14.7 billion cubic metres of natural gas was consumed in the residential and commercial sectors, equating to an increase of 3% and 13% compared to the 2022-2023 winter and the 2023-2024 winter seasons respectively. Typically, the gas consumed in the three winter months represents about 50% of the natural gas consumed in residential and commercial sectors throughout a typical calendar year. This seasonal consumption pattern underscores just how important natural gas is in the coldest months. 

    The seasonal peak observed in the natural gas system further emphasizes its importance to Canada’s energy system. To put this into perspective, the daily natural gas demand in the residential and commercial sector was 6.3 million GJ or about 73,000 MW. By comparison, the total electricity demand in the same two sectors this winter was only 33,000 MW. This comparison emphasizes the significant delivery capability of the natural gas system and its superior capability for meeting demand, especially during periods of peak demand or inclement weather. It is critical to understand these consumption patterns when there is any discussion about the future of our energy systems. 

  • A Message from the President and CEO of CGA

    A Message from the President and CEO of CGA

    The recent federal election put energy security in the spotlight—and rightfully so. Global uncertainty and shifting geopolitical dynamics are underscoring the rationale: access to reliable, affordable, and acceptable energy is more critical than ever, both here at home and around the world. 

    Our new government no doubt recognizes that there’s a real opportunity and growing expectation for Canada to lead on energy – the term superpower was used widely during the campaign.  

    Canada is already part of the integrated North American gas system – one of the most secure natural gas networks in the world – and natural gas remains the fuel of choice for heating homes, fuelling industry, and supporting commercial buildings across the continent. Why? Because it works, offering a proven advantage in its affordability and reliability. But Canada stands at the threshold of a major opportunity to do more with gas energy.  With the right policy alignment, we can unlock even more benefits from our natural gas advantage—broadening the affordability advantage, boosting competitiveness, and delivering the economic growth that creates jobs. 

    This issue of ENERGY explores what’s possible. We examine the political, economic, and technological forces shaping Canada’s energy future—and what needs to happen to ensure we don’t fall behind. 

    We begin with a thought-provoking feature that brings together political commentators from across the spectrum—Conservative, Liberal, and NDP—to answer one critical question: How can Canada leverage its natural gas advantage to become a key player in North American energy security? Their insights highlight both the opportunities and the tensions at play in today’s policy environment. 

    We head south of the border with the story Boom times for U.S. gas? Once thought to be on the decline, natural gas demand in the U.S. is rising fast, driven by AI fuelled growth in data centres and a historic surge in LNG export capacity. It’s a powerful reminder of how fast markets are shifting, and why Canada can’t afford to sit still. 

    Back home, our Facts and Developments section examines how natural gas once again delivered through a challenging Canadian winter. From coast to coast, our systems kept homes warm and businesses active—something worth reflecting on as the energy debate continues to evolve. 

    Innovation is also front and centre. Gas heat pumps: Advancing energy efficiency in heating and cooling takes a closer look at a promising technology that combines efficiency with performance in cold-weather climates. 

    From the global industry, we bring you a conversation between Andrea Stegher, Senior Advisor at SNAM and – effective end of June 2025 – President of the International Gas Union and Paul Cheliak, Vice President Strategy & Delivery at the Canadian Gas Association. Together, they reflect on global energy trends, Italy’s resilience strategy, and Canada’s evolving role in the gas market. 

    Finally, in our industry profile, we introduce An Energy Champion: Jacob Irving, the new President of the Industrial Gas Users Association. With a strong track record of leading some of the country’s most important energy organizations, Irving brings both insight and energy to a sector that underpins Canada’s manufacturing and industrial strength. 

    Wherever you are in the energy conversation—a policymaker, a business leader, a customer—we hope this edition offers meaningful insights and fresh perspective on the path ahead.